Mercedes drivers George Russell and Lewis Hamilton could offer a lifeline to Red Bull, Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez during the rest of the 2024 Formula 1 season. With 10 Grands Prix weekends left on the schedule, Red Bull are heading into a battle with McLaren. And Mercedes could be the ones to salvage things for Red Bull. Here’s how.

Hamilton and George Russell scored enough points in the 2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to secure P2 for Mercedes in the World Championship. The seven-time World Champion didn’t have the best of races and finished ninth, but it ensured his record of scoring points at every Grand Prix weekend in 2023 remained in place. Despite this, Hamilton was downbeat and frankly running on empty. He was asked by Sky Sports what the best thing was in 2023: “the fact I survived it”.

“For Red Bull to win by 17 seconds, and they haven’t developed since August, is definitely a concern. We’ve learnt a lot about the car. It’s down to the team now. Whether we’ll get there, we’ll see,” Hamilton said in Abu Dhabi. They started the season pretty much where they left off in 2023. However, there’s been a turnaround.

Mercedes introduced upgrades at the Canadian Grand Prix weekend, but nobody was really sure how they worked despite some good results. Russell qualified on pole position. He dropped backwards but achieved P3, while Lewis Hamilton also drove in the top places for a period of time. However, the Canadian Grand Prix took place in unique conditions, on a unique track, and in—at the time—unique circumstances, which saw Sergio Perez and Ferrari out of position.

Russell was there to pick up the pieces from the crash between Lando Norris and Verstappen at the Austrian Grand Prix. Hamilton secured his first win since the 2021 Formula 1 season at the British Grand Prix. A podium was achieved in Hungary, and Mercedes crossed the line in first and second in Belgium. Russell was disqualified, but the winning trophy stayed at the Mercedes garage.

What does Mercedes’ form mean for Red Bull and McLaren?

Mercedes scored 34 points out of the first four Grands Prix weekends. They were firmly behind Red Bull, Ferrari and customers McLaren. Their other customers, Aston Martin, were also hot on their heels. Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll scored 33 points from the opening four weekends.

This lack of point scoring at the start of the season for Mercedes took them – except for a miracle – out of the World Championship battle. As it stands, they are 142 points behind Red Bull Racing, with an average of 28 points scored since the Canadian Grand Prix weekend in June. Despite Sergio Perez’s poor run of results – and now Max Verstappen is not winning regularly – Red Bull are still averaging around 22 points per Grand Prix weekend. An average six-point gain, with the potential of some additional (small) gains in the remaining three sprints, makes it a very tough challenge. Mercedes need Red Bull to DNF a few times to even have a shot.

This means they (currently) provide very little threat to Red Bull. The same goes for the Drivers’ World Championship, with neither Russell nor Hamilton in the top five. Meanwhile, McLaren is knocking on the door. They have a 42-point deficit, and Lando Norris has a slim chance of overturning a 78-point gap in the Drivers’ World Championship.

Christian Horner and Max Verstappen probably won’t mind if Mercedes wins the odd race here and there if it prevents McLaren from winning and, therefore, gives the Woking-based team the significant points they need to mount a challenge. Maybe, just maybe, Horner and Verstappen will be cheering Wolff and Hamilton on.